We’re in a great time for RPGs, right? More brand recognition, more games, more exposure in popular culture. We no longer have to awkwardly explain our hobby, making it sound like some weird parlour game. We’re in a golden age of TTRPGs, aren’t we? Well – this is good, for sure, but it’s going to get even better.

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All over social media, Ben Riggs, author of Slaying the Dragon and generally intelligent RPG commentator, published this piece, saying that the 2024 edition of D&D – and the continuing OGL fallout – will lead to the slow collapse of D&D, and so the rest of the hobby. He’s entirely entitled to his opinions, and I think it’s a good thought exercise to have – but I disagree with him. So here’s my future predictions, based on the same evidence as he’s used, and my own thinking about it.

Let’s set the scene, as of January 2024. Wizards have a new edition on the horizon, and it’s a tricky one to land. 5th ed is towards the end of its product line, and thanks to Actual Plays / Streaming and a confluence of generational geek culture, is bigger than ever. Loads more people play TTRPGs than ever before, and the vast majority of this new influx play D&D. The announcement of a supposedly backwards-compatible has been met with worry from these nascent hobbyists as they begin to encounter edition wars for the first time – is it OneD&D, 6th Edition, or the 2024 edition? Is it really backwards compatible? What about my old supplements?

Alongside this, a botched (by any measure) announcement of the cancellation, and subsequent reinstatement, of the OGL has led to lots of big third party supporters to begin to bake their own fantasy systems. Cubicle 7, Kobold Press, and more are bringing out d20 systems to try and insulate themselves from any more Hasbro nonsense.

Will this cause the great splintering of the hobby? What will happen? Well, I’ve gathered my specially marked sticks and bones and cast augury (2nd level divination), and it said WEAL. Look into the future? Read on.

2024 D&D will not be as successful as 5e. It won’t matter.

Wizards won’t see the same explosion of interest that 5e eventually did. There will not be a new Critical Role renaissance. However, it’ll still be the biggest new edition launch since, well, 5e. Piles and piles of books will be sold. APs will be recorded, internet arguments will be had, some gamers will swear to stay with 5e, some will embrace the new edition. By 2025, the vast majority of gaming for the  D&D-ing segment of TTRPG players will be in the 2024 edition. 

Hasbro will fire the same number of people as they do every year – there will be no great reckoning, because they know the explosion can’t happen twice. 2024 D&D will be as successful as expected, and spawn lots of DMs Guild, third party and other content, because – well – it’s the most popular game right now.

And it’ll be a really good game, just like 5e was. We’ll all buy it and begrudgingly play about with it, and the internet will be aflame with comparison videos. D&D won’t die.

Other D&D5e Variants Will Also Do Well

They won’t do as well as D&D. But by 2025 they’ll be doing better than 5e, I reckon, as alternatives in 2024’s shadow. Pathfinder has built a following that will continue to love it. All the other big-name d20 games will do pretty well. None will challenge for D&Ds dominance. Channels and bloggers that are now D&D-focussed will instead become d20-focussed, and they will be all the better for it.

The new generation of 5e players right now already love a homebrew, and before long large numbers of games will pick and choose from the multitude of optional rules in these alternatives, whatever their original game was. Discourse will grow, as these gamers previously wedded to 5e begin to stretch their wings with the wider D20 hobby, and eventually…

Other TTRPGs Will Do Well

Critical Role’s launch of Candela Obscura will lead to lots of AP-inspired gamers checking out other games (in particular, I’d hope, Blades in the Dark and Vaesen), and once they’ve got their heads around learning one new system, they’ll learn loads more. The currently fecund creative market enjoyed by mid-tier publishers will only get better once they get snapped up by these new gamers. Critical Role will stream Shadows Over Bogenhafen. It’ll take them 50 4 hour sessions. 

This’ll filter down a little to the smaller, indie publishers on itch.io – they’ll do well, and we’ll see occasional breakout games, but the indie gamers will keep making, and keep doing well, in their corner of the hobby. Supported by…

Conventions Will Specialise

With so much to choose from, smaller cons will grow to specialise. One-day cons will proliferate, as well as online conventions focussed on one system or genre. Attendance will overall rise, but gamers will gravitate towards smaller, boutique conventions (face to face or online) because… well, they’re better.

Similarly, podcasts, twitch streams, and youtube channels will need to find a niche. Past the initial boom, new outlets that don’t have a slot to fill (like one-shots run in two hours, have I mentioned Unconventional GMs before?) will need to have a USP they can state in a few words. The age of the generic twitch stream with 6 viewers is over. We’ll see people recording more diverse games, more system comparison streams, and more learn-how-to-play-by-watching one-shots (have I mentioned UGMs is great for this?). 

And, all in all, we’ll enter a new golden age of roleplaying by January 2025 – you read it here first!